Per Capita Recession in Canada

"While Canada is not technically in a recession, the situation for individual Canadians tells a different story. A recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, which Canada has managed to avoid due to significant population growth. However, per capita GDP, which accounts for economic output on a per-person basis, has been falling.

From mid-2022 to early 2024, Canada's population grew by about 6%, adding 2.1 million people. This surge in population has masked the underlying economic struggles, as the total GDP has continued to grow, albeit slowly. In reality, per capita GDP has decreased in six out of the last seven quarters, with a decline of about 3.4% from its peak in 2022.

This decline in per capita output means that, on average, Canadians are producing and consuming less per person, leading to a recession-like feeling despite the overall economic growth. Additionally, the unemployment rate has risen, which typically only happens during a recession.

Therefore, while Canada avoids the traditional definition of a recession, the economic challenges at the individual level suggest a more troubling scenario.

Addressing a per capita recession requires a multifaceted approach to stimulate economic growth, improve productivity, and enhance individual well-being. Here are several strategies that can help:

1. Boosting Productivity

- Investment in Technology and Innovation: Encouraging businesses to adopt new technologies and invest in research and development can lead to higher productivity. Government grants and tax incentives for innovation can be beneficial.

- Workforce Development: Investing in education and training programs to upgrade the skills of the workforce can enhance productivity. This includes vocational training, apprenticeships, and continuous learning opportunities.

2. Supporting Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

- Access to Finance: Providing easier access to credit and financial services for SMEs can help them expand and contribute more significantly to the economy.

- Regulatory Support: Streamlining regulations and reducing bureaucratic hurdles can enable SMEs to operate more efficiently and grow.

3. Enhancing Labor Market Participation

- Inclusive Policies: Implementing policies that encourage higher labor market participation, especially among underrepresented groups such as women, older workers, and immigrants, can increase the overall economic output.

- Flexible Work Arrangements: Promoting flexible work arrangements can help more people join the workforce, particularly those balancing work with caregiving responsibilities.

4. Encouraging Population Growth in a Balanced Manner

- Sustainable Immigration Policies: While immigration has been a key driver of population growth, it should be managed in a way that ensures newcomers can integrate effectively into the economy and society, contributing positively to GDP per capita.

- Family-Friendly Policies: Providing support for families, such as affordable childcare and parental leave, can help boost the birth rate and ensure a steady growth in the working-age population.

5. Stimulating Domestic Consumption and Investment

- Tax Incentives: Offering tax breaks and incentives for domestic investments can encourage spending and investment within the country.

- Infrastructure Development: Investing in infrastructure projects can create jobs, stimulate economic activity, and improve long-term productivity.

6. Monetary and Fiscal Policies

- Interest Rate Adjustments: Central banks can adjust interest rates to stimulate borrowing and investment. Lower interest rates make it cheaper for businesses to borrow and invest in growth.

- Fiscal Stimulus: Government spending on public services and infrastructure can provide an immediate boost to economic activity and support longer-term growth.

7. Improving Export Competitiveness

- Trade Policies: Developing trade policies that open new markets for Canadian goods and services can help boost exports.

- Support for Export Industries: Providing support for key export industries, including manufacturing and natural resources, can enhance their competitiveness on the global stage.

8. Addressing Income Inequality

- Progressive Taxation: Implementing a progressive tax system can help redistribute income more equitably and support lower-income households.

- Social Safety Nets: Strengthening social safety nets, such as unemployment benefits and social assistance programs, can provide support to those in need and stimulate consumption.

By combining these strategies, Canada can work towards alleviating the effects of a per capita recession and fostering a more resilient and prosperous economy for all its citizens. "

The above passage was generated by ChatGPT 4.0 on August 5th, 2024 after two questions were raised.

1. Is Per Capital Recession happening in Canada?

2. What can we do to rectify the current recession in Canada?

While I agree with the suggested measures for the most part, I differ on parts of the solution and would like to add a few more specific points to create a more stable economy on a long term basis:

1. Universal education about personal finance, perhaps from Grade 5 in elementary schools should be implemented. Things will only get easier if the general population is on the same page in financial management.

2. Increase the supply of public housing. To accommodate the recent massive immigration trend, Canada simply cannot rely on the private housing market solely. 

3. Tally up the natural resources that the country possesses. Design schedules and/or plans to monetize the exploitation of these resources. Non-renewable natural resources are our basic assets that will be depleted in a short time if they are not managed properly.

4. Vertical integration should be implemented in all industries. For example, logs should be processed into various building materials and products before exporting to other countries so that we can achieve a higher dollar value for our products. 

5. Innovate, innovate, innovate. We need to spend more money on R & D. Play a technology leader role in the game of globalization to combat the lack of natural population growth. 

We are in a recession. Let us resolve the issues at their root, and not opt for Bandaid solutions and quick fixes.

Undocumented Migrants in Post-Pandemic Canada

In the past couple of years, I encountered a number of temporary residents with overstayed visas. These people entered into Canada prior to the border lockdown in March 2020 and became undocumented individuals either by choice or because of the backlog of visa extension applications. Though a majority of the international students, foreign worker and working holiday visa holders promptly returned to their home countries during the lockdown, many of these "migrants" remained in Canada illegally and created socio-economic problems in Canada. Let me share three real life stories which I experienced first hand. The subjects and I shared basements in 2022-4.

Ms. A came to Canada in 2017 with her family as refugees from (French speaking) Tunisia. Her family remained in Quebec and she moved to Vancouver, BC after staying in a small town in Quebec for one year. She did not work in Vancouver but collected Income Assistance benefits after her refugee allowance expired in 2018. Her excuse for not working was that she spoke very little English and nobody would hire her. However, she would not attend ESL classes. She tried to make money on social media but to no avail. Everyday she stayed home, played Arabic music and talked on the phone with her parents in Arabic. She claimed to be a practising Muslim; however, she never fasted during Ramadan. Whenever she went out, she would be scantily dressed, heavily perfumed with layers of make-up on her face.

Ms. B came to Canada from Mainland China as a foreign worker in the hospitality industry in 2018.  When the pandemic happened, she was laid off. Her work contract was terminated. During the lockdown, she collected CERB benefits. When her employer reopened their restaurant, she went "undocumented" and would not return to work. She moved from the address on file to an undisclosed address. She then worked as a cleaner paid by individuals on an on-call and cash basis. She had a habit storing recyclables and garbage in common areas. At one time, she had five vacuums, fifteen jumbo hard cases and numerous garbage bags and bins of kitchen items and small appliances piled up ceiling high. Ms. B physically assaulted me twice. Both times I filed a report with the local Police Station by showing them the bruises on my hands and arms.

Ms. C came to Canada as an international student from Mexico in 2019. She was issued a 1-year student visa to study English. Her visa expired August 15, 2020. I am not sure if she has extended her visa. Her main source of income was through selling stolen items. How did I find out? There was frequently a constant stream of visitors outside the house. Someone threw stones at my window. These visitors disappeared as swiftly as they appeared. She is seldom home. Whenever she is home, she would be on the phone speaking in Spanish. The broom closet is packed with her "stuff". She is very territorial.

As a Canadian, I tried to accommodate these "visitors" and tolerated their rude and bullying behavior. Hopefully, they are just the bad apples in their respective cultures. I do, however, question why Canada is not getting rid of these overstayed temporary residents. I am worried that our way of life would degrade rapidly before we could reap the benefits of being a multicultural society.

#undocumentedresidents #canadaimmigration #multiculturalism #badapples #deportation

Homeless in Vancouver

When people talk about the homeless people in big cities, they think of these people as welfare recipients, drug addicts and other substance abusers. Let me share my recent experiences upon returning to Vancouver, Canada two weeks ago. 

For the first three days, I stayed at an AirBNB place in Burnaby and met a couple of Iranian visitors who were waiting for their work visas to be issued. One of them ended up staying in a shelter for men in New Westminster because he couldn't afford paying $45 CAD/night for a bed at the AirBNB place for more than two weeks. Accepting too many newcomers too quickly into Canada for the sole purpose of replenishing the labour force in this case backfires terribly.

I moved to a hostel in Jericho Beach just outside UBC on the fourth day. At check-in, I was informed that I could only stay up to 21 days on that property because I am a Canadian citizen. International tourists can stay a bit longer. In that area, there are students who sleep in cars at night and go to classes in UBC during the day. There are out-of-town Canadian citizens hopping from hostel to hostel every three weeks, paying on an average $50 CAD/night for a dorm bed in a hostel.

It had been extremely stressful to find accommodation in Vancouver. A room in a house would cost $700 - 1400 CAD/month. The lower end of the rent spectrum would be a tiny closet/room with no windows and the bathroom is shared by 4 or 5 people. Sometimes there is no shared kitchen. The upper end would be a bigger room with ensuite bathroom and shared kitchen. Sometimes there is a price reduction if there is no access to public transportation. A 1-bedroom apartment costs no less than $2500/month provided that you have good credit rating, pay stubs and good references.

A common occurrence is that many property owners would use their rooms to get underpaid services from their tenants. For example, ads of doing cleaning and maintenance work in addition to a rent payment of $350 - 600/month in exchange to stay in a room in an old house were posted daily on Craigslist. I have replied to those ads and confirmed that working no less than 60 hours per month was expected. Another common trick slumlords pull was to rent out bedrooms to be shared by two or more female international students. Each tenant would be paying $550/month for a space on a mattress. That way a small room can yield more than renting out to one tenant for each room. These slumlords target the international students in particular because the students are not familiar with the Residential Tenancy Act of BC. Where is the humanity of these landlords?

When take-home income for a full-time worker at minimum wage is around $2000/month, it is easy to fall through the housing cracks in Vancouver and join the rank of the homeless in this relentless housing shortage crisis. Homelessness is more common among the newcomers, students, seniors and working poor than most people could imagine. Housing is a human right. Canada is far from being the dream country that it promotes itself to be in developing countries.

#Canada #Vancouver #housingcrisis #workingpoor #homelessness 

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Bangladesh Jan 8 - 30, 2024

I arrived in Bangladesh on January 8th, 2024, the day after the General Election. The incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was re-elected to enter her fourth term in office. It was reported that some dissenters were protesting aggressively in Dhaka, weeks leading to the election. 

Before I boarded the plane from Kuala Lumpur, I made a conscious decision of skipping the capital city until things settled down more. So I carefully mapped out a totally different route to visit Bangladesh. Instead of doing my routine circling around a country, I zigzagged BD in order of popularity of the attractions. In the event that I had to leave the country before the scheduled departure date, I would have visited the more important sites.

I took an express train to Chittagong within a couple hours of arrival in the Dhaka Airport. Then I visited the world's longest unbroken natural beach in Cox's Bazar, 150 kms south of Chittagong. Then I headed to the NW corner to visit my first UNESCO site in Bangladesh. Somapura Mahavihara is ancient Buddhist temple ruins from the 8th century. It turned out to be my favourite place in Bangladesh.

I spent five nights in my next destination city, Khulna. The second Bangladeshi UNESCO site is in Bagerhat which is 50 kms south of Khulna. There I learnt about a local saint, Khan Jahan Ali. His mausoleum and pond are revered by the locals. Many people washed themselves in the pond. Other than the Mosque of Sixty Domes, the Mausoleum and pond of the saint were visited by all local tourists.

Unfortunately I was not able to visit the Sundarbans and perchance see the Royal Bengal Tigers. Well, I found out later that I would not be able to spot a tiger so easily because they are usually sighted near late afternoons. There are only 104 Bengal Tigers in the entire National Park.

From Khulna, I headed out to the NE corner, Sylhet City which is near the Indian border. The NE corner of Bangladesh is famous for its tea gardens. However, I came at a wrong time. The tea gardens were pretty brown. 

The last stop is the capital city, Dhaka. I spent several days visiting Old Dhaka. I managed to visit Sonargaon before bidding farewell to Bangladesh. Sonargaon was founded in the 13th century and abandoned in the 19th century.

Bangladesh is also known for its many rivers. I had plans to take an overnight ferry from Dhaka to visit Barisal. A chain of events in the last week of my visit prevented me from visiting the "Venice of the East". Instead I had an opportunity to see the more modern side of Dhaka and I did more shopping. 

My biggest pet peeve is the traffic congestion in all Bangladeshi cities. The drivers have a habit of honking with or without problems. The air is very dusty. The locals are constantly spitting. The streets and waterways are filled with litter. Even the toll roads are in poor condition. A 250 km trip would often take more than eight hours to complete. 

Many Bangladeshis asked me what I think of their country. My honest reply would always be, "It is a very unique country". I didn't think manual rickshaws would still be in use in the 21st century but I rode on them many times. I did not think there would be day labourers working at the docks loading and unloading cargo boats and trucks. But I stayed in a hotel where these labourers also stayed in Khulna. They were always so kind to me even when I teased them with my silly jokes. May God protect and keep Bangladeshi people from all harms.

#bangladesh #rickshaws #bangladeshi #developing country #Bengal Tigers